The Evening: Who will win over white women?

Also, Russia is making swift advances in Ukraine.
The Evening

October 31, 2024

Good evening. Here's the latest at the end of Thursday.

  • A crucial voting bloc
  • Russia's advances in Ukraine
  • Plus, the benefits of horror films
A close-up picture of a woman's wrist with a beaded bracelet, with Kamala Harris's name visible on the beads.
A group called "White Women Answer the Call" is organizing for Kamala Harris. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

White women could decide the election

Kamala Harris attacked Donald Trump today for declaring at a rally last night that he would protect women "whether the women like it or not." Her comments were the latest push in an aggressive effort by the Harris campaign to appeal to a group of suburban, moderate or conservative white women that they believe are still persuadable.

These women, perhaps more than any other group, could decide the election, pollsters and strategists say. White women are the country's largest voting demographic, making up about 30 percent of the electorate, and they consistently turn out at very high rates. They favored Trump in the last two presidential races, but Harris has inched ahead slightly with them in recent polls.

Like other groups, white women list the economy as their top concern. But abortion rights is a close second, and an avenue by which Democrats believe they can win over some votes. In response, Trump — like many Republicans in competitive races — has tried to soften his opposition to abortion.

Trump's campaign, however, appears to be more focused on securing the votes of young men, who they believe can help tip the scales in his favor.

In other politics news:

Your questions: We asked Campbell Robertson, a national reporter, this question from a reader.

Why is Pennsylvania a swing state? What demographics are responsible for it being so? — Rebecca Ihlström, Sweden

Campbell: On Pennsylvania's corners sit two large, Democratic-voting cities — Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — surrounded by bands of increasingly liberal suburbs. But about half of Pennsylvania residents live outside these two major metro areas, in smaller cities and rural areas across the state. Many of these places were once humming with steel mills and factories, and home to many union members, a reliable Democratic base.

But as industry declined over the decades, the electorate in these areas steadily moved toward the right. The share of college-educated adults is growing in Pennsylvania, as is the number of non-white voters. But currently, a slight majority of the state's voters are white people without college degrees, Trump's most reliable demographic.

For more: Campbell talked to Pennsylvania voters about how they are feeling.

2024

What's at Stake: Imagining a Harris presidency

The presidential election is 5 days away. Each day, The Times will feature one story that focuses on the impact of the choice voters will make.

Kamala Harris is shattering precedents, but it is easier to see her as president in light of her story as a daughter of motivated immigrants and as a longtime prosecutor. She favors facts over ideology. Her guardedness, as an often prejudged woman of color, makes her aware of inequities in policy.

READ THE STORY

Kamala Harris walking from a black SUV to the stairs of Air Force Two.

Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York Times

Harris's Run Comes After a Series of Career Risks

A map shows the progress of Russia's forces in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Josh Holder

Russia is making swift advances in Ukraine

Over the past month, Russia has made its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since the summer of 2022. Its forces have seized more than 160 square miles of land in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, the main theater of the war today.

See our maps of the troop movements.

In related news, American officials are talking to their Chinese counterparts in an effort to stop North Korean troops from aiding Russia.

A grocery shopper looks at a variety of bread products while holding a shopping basket.
Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

Inflation is basically back to normal

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge increased 2.1 percent in September compared with a year earlier, according to a report released today. That's nearly back to the 2-percent level that policymakers aim for, though core inflation — without volatile food and fuel costs — remained at 2.7 percent.

For more: Here's why many Americans are still unsatisfied with the economy.

A graphic shows the direction of a strong gust of wind tipping a representation of a boat with an extra tall mast to 45 degrees. Arrows point to a point on the boat where the angle of incline would cause that part of the boat to go underwater, causing possible flooding.
The New York Times

How a tech tycoon's 'unsinkable' yacht sank

When the $40 million superyacht owned by the British tech mogul Michael Lynch sank off the coast of Italy in August, killing seven people, observers were shocked. The boat wasn't far from shore, and much smaller boats handled the storm just fine.

However, a Times investigation discovered that the yacht's most striking feature — its extra-tall mast and the engineering to accommodate it — made the yacht vulnerable to capsizing. Here's what we found.

More top news

TIME TO UNWIND

In a living room, Martha Stewart sits in a chair, a microphone above her head, facing a movie camera.
Martha Stewart in R.J. Cutler's "Martha." Netflix, via Associated Press

What's a documentary, anyway?

Celebrity documentaries are popular and often lucrative. But there's a debate in the industry about whether such films — which often feel like glamour shots — should be considered documentaries at all.

At the center of the dispute is the Oscar-nominated filmmaker R.J. Cutler, who has made major documentaries about stars like Elton John and Billie Eilish. He argues that since he has authority over the final cut, his celebrity films can be just as serious as any other project.

Cutler's most recent subject, Martha Stewart, was not happy with the film about her.

Shawn Mendes, shirtless and in tan pants, plays an acoustic guitar while standing on the flatbed of a red pickup truck.
Mark Sommerfeld for The New York Times

Shawn Mendes is ready to talk about his struggles

Two years ago, Shawn Mendes, the Canadian pop star, abruptly canceled a multimillion-dollar international tour. He had hit what he called a mental health "breaking point." It was a startling admission, especially for a male artist with a hugely devoted young fan base — if their attention wavered, his career could be over.

Mendes slowly made his way back to songwriting — this time exchanging pop gloss for mandolin, lap steel and violin. Ahead of his new album, "Shawn," we talked to him about the lessons he learned from stepping away.

Pigeons fly through the sky.
Rachel Wisniewski for The New York Times

Dinner table topics

WHAT TO DO TONIGHT

Gulab jamun, fried ball-shaped dough, in a bowl with yellow syrup, flecks of saffron and pink rose petals.
Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Cook: Serve these fragrant, syrup-soaked gulab jamun with a side of vanilla ice cream.

Watch: "A Real Pain" is a melancholic yet funny exploration of Jewish loss and belonging.

Read: Check out these smart and riveting new crime novels.

Listen: Our critics can't stop thinking about these classical music performances.

Wear: Looking for a good trench coat? Start here.

Stand: Sitting all day may shorten your life.

Hunt: Which Los Angeles home would you buy with a $1.3 million budget?

Play: Here are today's Spelling Bee, Wordle and Mini Crossword. Find all of our games here.

ONE LAST THING

A jack-o'-lantern with pointed teeth
Photo Illustration by The New York Times

Horror movies can be good for you

My colleague Melissa Kirsch doesn't like scary movies. So when she heard that another colleague of ours subjected himself to a weekend of nonstop horror films at a cabin in the middle of the woods, she had to ask him why.

"I like feeling scared when watching horror movies because I know that will pass," Gilbert Cruz, the Times Book Review editor, said. "There's mounting dread, mounting terror and then it's gone."

On our Culture Desk podcast, Melissa discussed the theory that horror movies can be so stimulating, yet sufficiently low stakes, that viewers want to come back for more.

Have a captivating Halloween.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Matthew

Campbell Robertson contributed to this newsletter.

Kirsten Luce was our photo editor today.

We welcome your feedback. Write to us at evening@nytimes.com.

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Writer: Matthew Cullen

Editorial Director: Adam Pasick

Editors: Carole Landry, Whet Moser, Justin Porter, Jonathan Wolfe

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